In a strong signal to international investors, the Deloitte Access Economics’ Business Outlook report predicts that Victoria will lead all Australian states in economic growth over the next five years.

Melbourne Victoria economic growth

The report forecast Victoria's growth in gross state product in 2023-24 will be 2.5 per cent, outpacing all states and territories, and Victorian economic growth will lead all states over the five years to 2027-28 at an average annual rate of 2.3 per cent.

The forecasts follow recent Australian Bureau of Statistics figures showing Victoria’s economic growth has outpaced NSW, Queensland, Western Australia and Tasmania over the past two years.

Victoria’s strong economy has enabled record job creation and employment levels are just shy of the all-time high achieved late last year – 3.68 million in total.

Almost 530,000 Victorian jobs have been created since September 2020 when the pandemic economic shock was at its height – the best performance of all the states in both absolute and percentage terms. The labour force participation rate at 67.4 per cent is around a record high, which shows workers have confidence in getting a job.

The Deloitte Access Economics report forecasts household consumption to grow by 1.3 per cent in 2024 in Victoria, outpacing the national forecast of 1.1 per cent.

Deloitte Access Economics expects dwelling investment to lift by 5.5 per cent in Victoria this year and noted “dwelling commencements in Victoria increased by 19 per cent in the September 2023 quarter, in sharp contrast to the 10 per cent decline at the national level”.

Victoria’s services exports are estimated to have lifted by almost 50 per cent last year, led by the rapid return of international students to Victoria’s higher education sector and supported by a rebound in international tourism.

Read more about Victoria’s current economic developments